The Destroyer of Moats

Hi QAVVERS,

I don’t have much to report except that it’s been flooding in Brisbane, so kung fu wasn’t on last night.

AUSTRALIAN MARKET UPDATE

The All Ordinaries rose 0.54% over the five trading sessions to Thursday 22 October 2026, closing at 8,917.10:

15 October: The ABS released its September 2026 Labour Force data on 15 October, showing the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 4.7 per cent, with the employment-to-population ratio falling 0.3 percentage points to 63.6 per cent.
21 October: Data centre operator NextDC (ASX: NXT) closed down 41.7 per cent on 21 October after cutting its FY27 net revenue guidance by roughly a third to $475,500 million and placing all new development projects on hold, after electricity distributor Jemena suspended grid upgrade works at its M3 data centre in West Footscray due to community opposition and local council planning requirements, with Jemena not expecting to resume before February 2027.
22 October: Furniture retailer Nick Scali (ASX: NCK) fell about 15 per cent on 22 October after issuing a trading update forecasting underlying group net profit of $28,32 million for the six months to 31 December 2026, roughly 20 per cent below market expectations and down from $41 million in the same period a year earlier, with the company citing an 11,14 per cent year-on-year drop in ANZ first-half revenue and weaker consumer demand linked to the housing market slowdown. I wonder how confident those “I’m just going to buy and hold NCK forever” folks (you know who you are) are feeling at the moment? Good luck to you.

US MARKET UPDATE

The S&P 500 fell 1.04% over the five trading sessions to Thursday 22 October 2026, closing at 7,663.43:

16 October: US industrial production rose 0.7% in September, following a 0.1% increase in August. Manufacturing output rose 0.3%, according to the Federal Reserve.
21 October: The S&P 500 rose 0.58% to 7,757.17 on Wednesday, extending its gains from Monday and Tuesday.
21 October: Meta reported quarterly revenue of $64.60 billion, up 26% on a year earlier. Its own results showed $34.91 billion in capital expenditure and negative free cash flow of $2.12 billion.
22 October: Technology shares sold off on Thursday. The Nasdaq fell 2.6% and the S&P 500 lost 1.2%, while the Dow finished roughly flat.

So, let’s get into my weekly updates and see where we are at.

All the Best, Cam

QAV MYTH KILLERS

On a recent Caesar podcast I was talking about the Roman siege against Masada in 73 C.E. and, of course, it reminded me of value investing.

Read the full article →

STOCK ANALYSIS OF THE WEEK

Australian Members can check out the stocks we traded in QAV Australian Light portfolios this week.

American Members can check out the stocks we traded in QAV American Light portfolios this week.

Tony did a Pulled Pork on Adrad Holdings (AHL) this week, a century-old Australian radiator business now supplying cooling systems for data centres, EV charging infrastructure, and Fortescue’s electric mining fleet. Full details in the podcast below.

This week on the American podcast I did a pulled pork on Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN), the casual dining company behind Outback Steakhouse, and found it cheap for some pretty good reasons including collapsing margins and falling guest visits. Check out the full analysis via the podcast link below.

BUY LIST

Each week, we produce a buy list based on our value investing system that we share with our QAV Club members. The intended primary purpose of this buy list is for club members to use as a reference for comparing their own buy list. In theory, all of our buy lists should look pretty similar each week.

AUSTRALIAN BUY LIST

QAV Value Investing Buy List (AU) 2026-10-17

U.S. BUY LIST

QAV Value Investing Buy List 2026-10-19

PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE

We compare our performance to what we think is the most relevant benchmark (SPDR 200 in Australia, S&P500 in the USA), but if you’re new to investing, these comparisons might not mean much. Instead, you can compare our performance to the top-performing Super Funds in Australia and see why an amateur active investor (who has a system to follow) can out-perform most of the “professionals”.

We publish a fresh performance snapshot once a month. Weekly noise doesn’t tell you much in a value-investing system — what matters is the trend.

October 2026 performance snapshot.

Australian Model Portfolio: No trades this week.

American Model Portfolio: No trades this week.

Become a QAV Light Member today and start your investing on the right track

If you want to find out what we’re trading in QAV Light each week, sign up to become a member. You’ll get an email from me every Monday letting you know what we’re buying and selling in that portfolio. You can choose to copy our trades or not. It’s the easiest way to start your rules-based investing career… and you don’t even need to know the rules. I’ll follow the rules for you. It’s a good first step to eventually becoming a QAV Club member and learning how to run the system by yourself.

QAV LIGHT: Someone already cleared the way.

(Note: Americans interested in joining QAV Light or Club please go here instead.)

Add QAV America — US stocks, the same QAV method

Already a QAV member? You can add QAV America as your second membership at 50% off — US-listed stocks, the same QAV approach, billed in AUD through this site (just one payment to keep an eye on). Add QAV America →

Not a QAV member yet? Join QAV first, then you can add QAV America at the 50% member rate.