Hi QAVVERS,
The world’s still turning… and burning. Lots of oil refineries and pipelines are burning. My daily briefing says satellite imagery and three industry sources now indicate that last week’s attack damaged three pumping stations on Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, rather than the two previously reported. Three sources said full repairs could require five to six weeks. Another believes partial pumping may resume while repairs continue. US officials have suggested half the capacity could return within days, but who believes anything they say anymore?
The United States has now issued a 90-day emergency waiver allowing fuel-tanker drivers to operate for up to 16 hours within a 24-hour period, instead of 14. US diesel has reached a record US$6.29 per gallon, up from US$3.74 a year earlier.
China has also intervened diplomatically. After an appeal from Riyadh, Beijing privately asked Iran to restrain the Houthis, but it’s hard to see how that would benefit Iran unless the U.S. and Israel also agree to some of their demands.
Brisbane diesel is now roughly 46 cents per litre dearer than U91, a difference of about A$28 on a 60-litre fill. The cheapest reported Brisbane U91 is 211.5 c/L but FuelRadar says the area average is 231.2, which is a full cent below the current Australian average.
The US House passed legislation that authorises Trump to impose tariffs of up to 100% on countries deemed major consumers of Russian energy. Potential targets include China and India, but also Japan and European countries still buying Russian products. It also expands sanctions on Russian officials and entities connected to the war. This could further hurt Russian revenues, but could also push discounted Russian oil out of the market, putting more pressure on the global system.
Anyway… let’s talk about the markets.
AUSTRALIAN MARKET UPDATE
The All Ordinaries slipped roughly 1% over the five trading days to Wednesday, closing around 8,910, extending what has been a difficult September for the local sharemarket, but has rebounded today:
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The US Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, its first increase since 2023, citing elevated inflation driven in part by spiralling oil prices.
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The Fed move added pressure on the RBA to raise rates at its meeting on 29 September, with financial markets pricing in close to a 90% chance of a hike.
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Brent crude futures pushed to almost US$110 a barrel during the week after further Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping routes, keeping inflation and rate-hike fears elevated.
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The rate-sensitive sharemarket was also pounded by a US 10-year bond yield that pushed above 5.02% during the Asian session on Monday, its highest level in years.
US MARKET UPDATE
The S&P 500 closed around 7,552 on Wednesday and was bouncing intraday on Thursday, leaving the index on track for a down week as the Federal Reserve’s first rate hike in three years dominated trade:
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The S&P 500 had fallen five of the last six trading days heading into the Fed decision, with the 10-year Treasury yield hitting above 5% to 20-year highs, and oil prices continuing to push higher.
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US equities climbed on Thursday, supported by a drop in Treasury yields and oil prices as well as gains in key technology stocks, with the Dow adding 363 points or 0.7% and the S&P 500 up 1.1%.
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Brent crude slipped to around $104 a barrel on signs that supply disruptions in the Middle East are set to ease. But are they? Or is that just the usual line the U.S. trots out every few weeks?
So, let’s get into my weekly updates and see where we are at.
All the Best,
Cam
QAV MYTH KILLERS
Lucky Smart
In last week’s article I talked about long-term double market returns and whether or not they could just be luck. The statistics suggested that isn’t the case.
STOCK ANALYSIS OF THE WEEK
Australian Members can check out the stocks we traded in QAV Australian Light portfolios this week.
American Members can check out the stocks we traded in QAV American Light portfolios this week.
Tony did a Pulled Pork on West African Resources (WAF), a gold miner operating in Burkina Faso that is currently posting margins above 100% on gold, while carrying some very real political risk including what happens to your capital if Burkina Faso becomes a pariah state. Check out the full episode at the link below.
This week’s American podcast pulled pork was on One Main Financial (OMF), a lender focused on the 100 million non-prime Americans the banks won’t touch. Check the link below for the full deep dive.
BUY LIST
Each week, we produce a buy list based on our value investing system that we share with our QAV Club members. The intended primary purpose of this buy list is for club members to use as a reference for comparing their own buy list. In theory, all of our buy lists should look pretty similar each week.
AUSTRALIAN BUY LIST
QAV Value Investing Buy List (AU) 2026-09-12
U.S. BUY LIST
QAV Value Investing Buy List 2026-09-14
PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
We compare our performance to what we think is the most relevant benchmark (SPDR 200 in Australia, S&P500 in the USA), but if you’re new to investing, these comparisons might not mean much. Instead, you can compare our performance to the top-performing Super Funds in Australia and see why an amateur active investor (who has a system to follow) can out-perform most of the “professionals”.
We publish a fresh performance snapshot once a month. Weekly noise doesn’t tell you much in a value-investing system — what matters is the trend.
September 2026 performance snapshot.
Australian Model Portfolio: No trades this week.
American Model Portfolio: No trades this week.
Become a QAV Light Member today and start your investing on the right track
If you want to find out what we’re trading in QAV Light each week, sign up to become a member. You’ll get an email from me every Monday letting you know what we’re buying and selling in that portfolio. You can choose to copy our trades or not. It’s the easiest way to start your rules-based investing career… and you don’t even need to know the rules. I’ll follow the rules for you. It’s a good first step to eventually becoming a QAV Club member and learning how to run the system by yourself.
QAV LIGHT: He already knows where they are.
(Note: Americans interested in joining QAV Light or Club please go here instead.)
Add QAV America — US stocks, the same QAV method
Already a QAV member? You can add QAV America as your second membership at 50% off — US-listed stocks, the same QAV approach, billed in AUD through this site (just one payment to keep an eye on). Add QAV America →
Not a QAV member yet? Join QAV first, then you can add QAV America at the 50% member rate.
THIS WEEK’S EPISODES
Dogs of Gold: Inside the West African Mining Gamble: QAV AU #947
OMFG: Lending to the Other 100 Million Americans: QAV America #70
STOCK NEWS AND UPDATES
COMMODITIES
This week the big changes to commodities were the following:
| Commodity | Status |
|---|---|
| Steel | JOSEPHINE |
DISCLOSURE
Please review our trading and disclosure policy.
SIGNING OFF
SSDD!
- Cam
That’s it for the week!
QAV A GOOD SHAREMARKET!
Got a question? info@qavamerica.com