Hi QAVVERS,
Australia’s All Ordinaries finished the five-day period around 9,127, posting a modest gain of 3.28% from the week’s opening levels despite a choppy ride along the way. The Iran was seems over… for now.
US markets were also positive, with the S&P 500 closing around 7,498.
So, let’s get into my weekly updates and see where we are at.
All the Best,
Cam
QAV MYTH KILLERS
28 TRILLION DOLLARS!
The hottest IPO in history happened this week: Elon Musk’s SpaceX (SPCX). We already talked about it a bit on the podcast, but in case you haven’t listened to it, here’s my take on it.
As a story? It’s incredible. You have to hand it to Elon. He shoots for the moon (or Mars).
As a business? Who knows? Maybe it’ll live up to Elon’s dreams and take a big chunk of the $28.5 trillion “TOTAL ADDRESSABLE MARKET” (TAM) that it’s claiming it’s chasing (“…the largest TAM in human history”).
As an investment? It’s an exercise in insane speculation. And you’d have to be completely nuts – or like a punt – to put money into it at those prices.
In the United States, a Form S-1 is the initial registration statement required by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for companies going public. And here’s the kicker buried in the SPCX S-1: 93% of that headline TAM is AI – the bulk of it some nebulous “enterprise AI applications” bucket. The rocket business, you know, the entire reason the company exists, is barely 1% of the number on the slide.
But what does it all mean?
Let’s put it in some context.
Global GDP in 2025 was roughly $117 trillion. SpaceX’s TAM is about a quarter of everything every human being on Earth produces in a year – and that’s after excluding China and Russia, so it’s an even bigger share of the economy it actually claims to address.
SpaceX’s 2025 revenue was $18.7B. In other words, they’re today capturing a fraction of one percent of the market they say they’re chasing.
On the podcast, I said the PROPCAF on SpaceX is 1750x. But my math was off – I was using the Q1 cashflow number, not the trailing-twelve-month one (serves me right for trying to shoot off a quick TikTok on a Monday). It’s actually a much more reasonable… 370x. As a reminder – we don’t look at anything over 7x. We often say a 7x PROPCAF means the company could pay back your buy price in 7 years. Based on its current operating cashflow, which is nearly all from the Starlink (ISP) business, SPCX would take 370 years to pay you back.
Worth more than Amazon
This week, SPCX leapfrogged Amazon to become one of the most valuable companies on the planet. Think about that for a second. Amazon’s annual profit is around four times SpaceX’s entire revenue – and yet SpaceX is worth more. Go figure that one out.
Speaking of the TAM, Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance at NYU Stern School of Business, and author of many books on valuation, wrote a pretty interesting pre-IPO analysis. He said the TAM “borders on fantasy” and “…I wonder what an entirely Grok-written prospectus would have looked like, and whether we would have noticed the difference.” When your addressable market is a quarter of world GDP, you haven’t told the investor anything about the business, you’ve told them you’d rather they didn’t look at the business. It reminds me of the old dot com days when every business plan claimed their goal was capturing 1% of the global market for this or that sector. It was comical. Apparently SPCX is taking the same approach. I know Tony has already referred to Elon as a Bond villain, but seriously, I never thought he was Dr Evil.
As for what the future holds for space and AI – nobody knows how these things are going to play out. I’m pretty sure China is going to play a pretty big role in both, as well as EVs and robotics. If AI takes over every white collar job, will that market be worth $22.7T? I have no idea. But it’s a big “if” either way.
And is Elon Musk a stable-enough guy to pull it off? I have my doubts.
What would it take for QAV to invest in SPCX?
There are only two ways a 370x PROPCAF becomes a 7x multiple. Either the cash flow climbs to meet the price – and only if the share price never rises again, because the moment it does, the target runs away from you. Or the price falls to meet the cash flow.
To get there at today’s price, SpaceX would have to throw off about as much cash as Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet generate combined – just to reach the ceiling of QAV’s buy zone.
Possible? I guess so.
Am I going to bet on it?
Not likely.
Speaking of Dr Evil… have you seen this?
Apparently Mike Myers is gearing up for another instalment of Austin Powers. Maybe this time, Dr Evil will be working for Elon.
STOCK ANALYSIS OF THE WEEK
With oil becoming a sell, I had to sell a bunch of stocks from the Light portfolios this week and you can see my Light post here.
I also had to replace a bunch of oil stocks in the U.S. Light portfolio this week. U.S. members can read about them here.
On the full Australian podcast this week, Tony did a pulled pork on Suncorp (SUN), freshly back on the buy list after divesting its banking arm to ANZ. Have a listen via the podcast link down below if you want his full analysis.
On the American episode, I did a pulled pork on Aeromexico (AERO), Mexico’s national airline. It’s newly listed on the NYSE, trading below its IPO price, and screening at a Pr/OpCaf of just 1.55. The podcast link is down below if you want the full breakdown.
BUY LIST
Each week, we produce a buy list based on our value investing system that we share with our QAV Club members. The intended primary purpose of this buy list is for club members to use as a reference for comparing their own buy list. In theory, all of our buy lists should look pretty similar each week.
QAV Value Investing Buy List (AU) 2026-06-13
Below is a link to the US list for this week (available exclusively to our U.S. Club members):
QAV Value Investing Buy List 2026-06-14
PORTFOLIO PERFORMANCE
We compare our performance to what we think is the most relevant benchmark (SPDR 200 in Australia, S&P500 in the USA), but if you’re new to investing, these comparisons might not mean much. Instead, you can compare our performance to the top-performing Super Funds in Australia and see why an amateur active investor (who has a system to follow) can out-perform most of the “professionals”.
We publish a fresh performance snapshot once a month. Weekly noise doesn’t tell you much in a value-investing system — what matters is the trend.
June 2026 performance snapshot.
Trades this week
Australian Dummy portfolio:
No trades this week.
American Summy portfolios:
15/06/2026 BUY – AERO
15/06/2026 SELL – KNOP
Become a QAV Light Member today and start your investing on the right track
If you want to find out what we’re trading in QAV Light each week, sign up to become a member. You’ll get an email from me every Monday letting you know what we’re buying and selling in that portfolio. You can choose to copy our trades or not. It’s the easiest way to start your rules-based investing career… and you don’t even need to know the rules. I’ll follow the rules for you. It’s a good first step to eventually becoming a QAV Club member and learning how to run the system by yourself.
QAV LIGHT: You don’t need to build it to tell the time.
(Note: Americans interested in joining QAV Light or Club please go here instead.)
THIS WEEK’S EPISODES
STOCK NEWS AND UPDATES
COMMODITIES
This week the big changes to commodities were the following:
| Commodity | Status |
|---|---|
| Copper | BUY |
| Zinc | BUY |
| Tin | JOSEPHINE |
| WTI Crude | SELL |
DISCLOSURE
Please review our trading and disclosure policy.
SIGNING OFF
That’s a wrap on another week of hunting for value wabbits in a market that continues to fluctuate like my iron levels. As Tony said this week – we might be back to buying oil stocks once the Iran deal falls apart… but that’s a story for another day.
SSDD!
- Cam
That’s it for the week!
QAV A GOOD SHAREMARKET!
Got a question? info@qavamerica.com