Hi folks,
The All Ordinaries continued its downward trajectory over the past five days, sliding from around 8,950 to close near 8,887, representing a decline of approximately 1.5%, as the “ASX heads for longest losing streak since 2018 as oil passes $US124” (source).
The S&P 500, on the other hand, continues to act like a meth addict on the Titanic. In this case, the meth is the Mag7. It rose 1.42% to close around 7,209. “Basically, it is computer chip stocks – and almost nothing else – that have lifted the market from its wartime lows and back to record highs, as investors bet that demand for AI chips can run for many years” (source).
So, let’s get into my weekly updates and see where we are at.
All the Best,
Cam
QAV MYTH KILLERS
“This Time It’s Different”
There’s a line in investing, usually attributed to Sir John Templeton, that the four most expensive words in the English language are: “This time it’s different.”
I think about that one a lot.
Long-time listeners to the QAV podcast will remember that one of Australia’s most respected finance commentators once said exactly those words to us, on air, with a completely straight face. He was wrong. They almost always are.
The phrase gets pulled out whenever a new technology, a new economic paradigm, or a new business model is being sold as the reason it’s now safe to throw out the rule book. AI today. Crypto in 2021. The “new economy” in 1999. The Nifty Fifty in 1972. Railroads in 1869. The South Sea Company in 1720. Tulips in 1637.
We don’t buy it.
As Tony likes to say, history may not repeat but it rhymes. (He stole that from Mark Twain, who almost certainly never said it. Either way, the point holds.)
There are always new business models and paradigm shifts that are the flavour of the month. So far, none of them have fundamentally changed the basic principles behind investing – which is to find companies that are well run, that know how to make a dollar, and to only buy them when you can get them at a discount.
I Was There For The Last One
Tony and I were both around for the dot-com boom in the late 90s. We remember the hype. We remember being told all the rules were obsolete because the internet had changed everything.
And here’s the thing: it had. Sort of.
The internet really did revolutionise large parts of the economy. Amazon and Google emerged from that era and produced trillions of dollars in shareholder value. But that didn’t mean every dot-com startup was a good investment. Most of them were spectacularly bad ones.
Between March 2000 and October 2002, the Nasdaq fell from 5,048 to 1,114. A drop of about 78%. Pets.com, Webvan, eToys, Boo.com, Kozmo, Flooz – all vapourised. Companies that had been valued at billions on the strength of a slide deck and a clever URL went to zero.
I was personally invested in a number of those startups. Friends of mine were running and floating them during those heady days, with huge dreams of building dot-com empires that all ended in dust like the kingdom of Ozymandias.
I had a front-row seat in Silicon Valley during those years. And I can tell you with confidence that the loudest voices selling the future had no more idea whether they were right than you or I did. They just had more confidence in promoting their ideas. That’s not insight. That’s marketing.
When people get caught up in the hype of a paradigm shift, it’s easy to forget that the people selling them the brave new world are making it up as they go along.
So What Is A Quality Business?
The question every “this time it’s different” pitch tries to dodge is this: how do you tell the real businesses from the hype machines?
Is it the quality of the slide deck? The promotional video? The amount of venture capital raised? The market cap the day after the IPO?
Obviously not. We can all rattle off a list of very flashy, very splashy companies that didn’t survive their own hype cycle.
A venture capitalist once told an audience I was sitting in, back in the late 90s: “A big vision and 50 cents will buy you a cup of coffee.”
What matters is execution. Can you turn that vision into a real business? And the only honest way to answer that question is to look at the output.
The output takes the form of financial reports. What did the business actually produce in the last 12 months? Two years? Three years? Five years?
That’s where the rubber meets the road. And it doesn’t matter what technological revolution or business model innovation is supposedly driving your sector. At the end of the day, for a company to be a successful investment, it needs to be making money. Real money. The kind that shows up in the cash flow statement, not the kind that lives in a pitch deck.
Why We Anchor On Operating Cash Flow
This is why QAV’s primary value metric is operating cash flow. Not earnings. Not adjusted EBITDA. Not “annualised recurring revenue at scale.” Operating cash flow.
Cash is harder to fake than almost any other line on the financial statements. A company can tell you a beautiful story about its future. It can manage its earnings within accounting rules. It can find creative ways to describe its losses. But it has a much harder time inventing the cash that physically lands in its bank account each quarter.
When AI is the next big thing – and right now, it very much is – the same rules apply. A handful of real businesses will emerge from the current cycle and produce cash for decades. Hundreds more will look identical from the outside, until the music stops.
The QAV checklist doesn’t care which sector is in vogue. It cares whether the numbers stack up.
That’s why we don’t get caught up in “this time it’s different.”
Because every time, it isn’t.
STOCK ANALYSIS OF THE WEEK
I added one stock to the Light portfolios this week and you can see my Light posts here.
I also added something to the U.S. Light portfolio this week. U.S. Light and Club members can read about it here.
On the full Australian podcast this week, Tony did a deep dive on AMA. See the podcast link down below if you want to listen to his analysis.
BUY LIST
Each week, we produce a buy list based on our value investing system that we share with our QAV Club members. The intended primary purpose of this buy list is for club members to use as a reference for comparing their own buy list. In theory, all of our buy lists should look pretty similar each week.
QAV Value Investing Buy List (AU) 2026-04-25
Below is a link to the US list for this week (available exclusively to our U.S. Club members):
QAV Value Investing Buy List 2026-04-26
PORTFOLIOS
We compare our performance to what we think is the most relevant benchmark (SPDR 200 in Australia, S&P500 in the USA), but if you’re new to investing, these comparisons might not mean much. Instead, you can compare our performance to the top-performing Super Funds in Australia and see why an amateur active investor (who has a system to follow) can out-perform most of the “professionals”.
AUSTRALIAN
QAV DUMMY
Five Year Report: Over the last 5 years, the QAV AU portfolio delivered a return of approximately 14.5%, while the ASX 200 benchmark returned around 8.4%.
Monthly Report: Over the past 30 days, the QAV AU portfolio delivered a return of approximately +2.8%, while the ASX 200 benchmark gained around +1.5%.
No changes to our portfolio this week.
For FY26: Over the financial year to date, the QAV AU portfolio delivered a return of approximately 18.3%, while the ASX 200 benchmark gained around 5.0%.
QAV LIGHT
All Time
Over the all-time period, the QAV AU Light portfolio delivered a return of approximately 19.2%, while the ASX 200 benchmark returned around 9.9%.
Financial Year to Date
Over the financial year to date, the QAV AU Light portfolio delivered a return of approximately 26.9%, while the ASX 200 benchmark gained around 5.0%.
Last 30 Days
Over the past 30 days, the QAV AU Light portfolio delivered a return of approximately 2.8%, while the ASX 200 benchmark fell around -0.1%.
Last 12 Months
Over the last 12 months, the QAV AU Light portfolio delivered a return of approximately 31.5%, while the ASX 200 benchmark gained around 11.2%.
Become a QAV Light Member today and start your investing on the right track
If you want to find out what we’re trading in QAV Light each week, sign up to become a member. You’ll get an email from me every Monday letting you know what we’re buying and selling in that portfolio. You can choose to copy our trades or not. It’s the easiest way to start your rules-based investing career… and you don’t even need to know the rules. I’ll follow the rules for you. It’s a good first step to eventually becoming a QAV Club member and learning how to run the system by yourself.
QAV LIGHT: We know where to drop your line.
(Note: Americans interested in joining QAV Light or Club please go here instead.)
AMERICAN
QAV DUMMY
Since inception (Sep 2023), our portfolio is +110% vs the S&P 500 +62%.
Over the last 30 days our portfolio is +10% vs the S&P 500 +10%.
No trades this week.
QAV LIGHT
Since inception (Dec 2025), our portfolio is +11% vs the S&P 500 +4.81%. Over the last 30 days our portfolio is +8.87% vs the S&P 500 +10%.
THIS WEEK’S EPISODES
The $3.6 Billion Illusion (MRP) – QAV America #50
STOCK NEWS AND UPDATES
COMMODITIES
This week the big changes to commodities were the following:
| Commodity | Status |
|---|---|
| Crude Oil | BUY |
| Steel | BUY |
DISCLOSURE
Please review our trading and disclosure policy.
SIGNING OFF
Keep buying quality companies at discount prices, keep following the checklist, and trust that Mr Market will eventually come to his senses.
Here’s a poster you can print out and stick to your wall to keep you on track.
SSDD!
- Cam
That’s it for the week!
QAV A GOOD SHAREMARKET!
Got a question? info@qavamerica.com