Hi folks,
It’s Friday morning (Australian time) and I’m about to hit the road back home. Here’s a photo I took of the sun setting at Elliott Heads beach last night where we took Fox to chase soldier crabs (his current favourite thing to do). We have to get back to Brisbane for kung fu training tonight, so I thought I’d get the newsletter out before I leave.
The All Ordinaries gained modest ground over the five-day period, climbing up 0.03% for the session. Reports of a ceasefire deal with Iran, and the potential opening of shipping straits, gave the market a little buoyancy over the last couple of days.
The S&P 500 rallied strongly over the five-day period, climbing 0.62% on the final session alone. Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire with Iran sent stock futures surging while oil prices plunged 15%.
So, let’s get into my weekly updates and see where we are at.
All the Best,
Cam
QAV MYTH KILLERS
“The Value Trap”
When we start getting interested in value investing, one of the first things well-meaning friends warn you about are “value traps.”
A value trap is an investment that looks cheap based on metrics but stays cheap (or gets cheaper) for good reason, usually because of underlying weaknesses in the business or its industry that aren’t immediately obvious.
People who believe in the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) think value stocks are basically too good to be true, like a politician who does what they promised before the election, or a Nigerian prince who just needs your bank details to release $47 million. According to EMH, there are no genuine mispricings. If a stock looks cheap, it’s cheap for a reason, and the market already knows something you don’t.
It’s easy to see why this sticks. It sounds scientific. It has Nobel prizes behind it (Eugene Fama won in 2013), and it conveniently excuses doing nothing.
We side firmly with the behavioural finance people, Kahneman and Thaler, who blew a massive hole in EMH by showing that prices are systematically distorted by human psychology: panic, herding, recency bias. The market prices fear efficiently. Value is another matter entirely.
Here’s the thing: we aren’t experts in any particular business, sector, or industry. We don’t claim to be. Some people, like Buffett and Munger, are happy to spend their days studying the intricacies of various markets, and if you want to do that (and have the time and energy), best of luck to you. That’s not what we do. Tony would rather play golf. Cameron would rather do kung fu.
Our approach is to trust the algorithm to find value stocks, and then use our selling rules to exit if something goes wrong. We assume we’re going to get some wrong. That’s built into the system. Even Buffett has always claimed a win rate of around 60%, and that’s what we aim for too.
Our U.S. pulled porks are a perfect example. We know very little about the American market. The majority of companies we’ve covered on QAV America were completely new to me, and probably to most Americans too. Have you heard of Mammoth Energy Services (TUSK)? Precision Drilling Corporation (PDS)? Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEP)?
Over the past year or so, we’ve done pulled porks on 45 American companies that were high on our buy list at the time. As of the day I’m writing this, 31 of them (68.9%) are up since we covered them. Of the remainder, our sell triggers would have had us out and into something else on the buy list before the damage got serious.
So I don’t lose sleep over value traps. I buy what the checklist tells me to buy, and I let my sell triggers tell me when to leave. The algorithm worries so I don’t have to.
I do still steer clear of Nigerian princes, though.
STOCK ANALYSIS OF THE WEEK
I added a couple things to the Light portfolios this week and you can see my Light posts here.
I also added something to the U.S. Light portfolio this week. U.S. Light and Club members can read about it here. It was also the subject of the American episode. See the podcast link down below if you want to listen to my analysis.
On the full Australian podcast this week, Tony did a deep dive on TWR. See the podcast link down below if you want to listen to his analysis.
BUY LIST
Each week, we produce a buy list based on our value investing system that we share with our QAV Club members. The intended primary purpose of this buy list is for club members to use as a reference for comparing their own buy list. In theory, all of our buy lists should look pretty similar each week.
QAV Value Investing Buy List (AU) 2026-04-05
Below is a link to the US list for this week (available to our U.S. Club members):
QAV Value Investing Buy List 2026-04-03
PORTFOLIOS
We compare our performance to what we think is the most relevant benchmark (SPDR 200 in Australia, S&P500 in the USA), but if you’re new to investing, these comparisons might not mean much. Instead, you can compare our performance to the top-performing Super Funds in Australia and see why an amateur active investor (who has a system to follow) can out-perform most of the “professionals”.
AUSTRALIAN
QAV DUMMY
Five Year Report: Over the last 5 years, the QAV AU portfolio delivered a return of approximately 15.5% pa, while the ASX 200 benchmark returned around 8.9%.
Monthly Report: Over the past 30 days, the QAV AU portfolio delivered a return of approximately 0.23%, while the ASX 200 benchmark gained around 1.86%.
I did sell CGF from our portfolio this week and replaced it with EDU.
For FY26: Over the financial year to date, the QAV AU portfolio delivered a return of approximately 18.9% pa, while the ASX 200 benchmark gained around 7.6%.
QAV LIGHT
All Time
Over the all-time period, the QAV AU Light portfolio delivered a return of approximately 19.4% pa, while the ASX 200 benchmark returned around 10.8%.
Financial Year to Date
Over the financial year to date, the QAV AU Light portfolio delivered a return of approximately 26.6% pa, while the ASX 200 benchmark returned around 7.6%.
Last 30 Days
Over the past 30 days, the QAV AU Light portfolio delivered a return of approximately 1.3% pa, while the ASX 200 benchmark gained around 1.9%.
Last 12 Months
Over the last 12 months, the QAV AU Light portfolio delivered a return of approximately 42.9% pa, while the ASX 200 benchmark returned around 25.5%.
Become a QAV Light Member today and start your investing on the right track
If you want to find out what we’re trading in QAV Light each week, sign up to become a member. You’ll get an email from me every Monday letting you know what we’re buying and selling in that portfolio. You can choose to copy our trades or not. It’s the easiest way to start your rules-based investing career… and you don’t even need to know the rules. I’ll follow the rules for you. It’s a good first step to eventually becoming a QAV Club member and learning how to run the system by yourself.
(Note: Americans interested in joining QAV Light or Club please go here instead.)
AMERICAN
QAV DUMMY
The QAV America portfolio has delivered returns of +105% since inception, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 benchmark which gained +52% over the same period. This represents outperformance of approximately 53 percentage points.
Over the past 30 days, the QAV America portfolio delivered a +7% return compared to the S&P 500’s flat performance near 1%.
No trades this week.
QAV LIGHT
The QAV America Light portfolio has delivered a +3% return since inception (Dec 2025), significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s -1% gain over the same period.
THIS WEEK’S EPISODES
Dead Cat or Dead Cert? Navigating the March Sell-Off – QAV AU #914
Truck Sausage (CVGI) – QAV America #47
STOCK NEWS AND UPDATES
COMMODITIES
This week the big changes to commodities were the following:
Gold (USD) — BUY
Coal (thermal) — JOSEPHINE
Coal (coking) — BUY
Aluminium — JOSEPHINE
Magnesium — SELL
Steel — JOSEPHINE
LNG — SELL
DISCLOSURE
Please review our trading and disclosure policy.
SIGNING OFF
That’s a wrap on another week! Our deep dives into TWR and CVGI should give you plenty to chew on over the weekend. The Iran situation will no doubt remain fluid and the markets will continue to run around with its kilt over its head. Remember, in this game of patience and discipline, the best opportunities often come to those who stick to their process and keep their emotions in check. Stay focused on the fundamentals and let the market noise fade into the background.
SSDD!
- Cam
That’s it for the week!
QAV A GOOD SHAREMARKET!
Got a question? info@qavamerica.com