Hi folks,
The All Ordinaries was up again this week, as the markets shrug off the pending economic doom that Trump has thrust upon the world in a feat of either blind optimism or maybe they know something I don’t know.
The S&P 500 also had a good week, climbing from around 6,800 to close at 7,041, marking a solid 3.17% gain for the week.
So, let’s get into my weekly updates and see where we are at.
All the Best,
Cam
QAV MYTH KILLERS
“GOING TO CASH”
Peter Lynch once said: “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.”
Warren Buffett liked that one so much he repeated it.
And yet, every time markets get wobbly — and right now, with the US-Iran war pushing oil toward $100 a barrel and the Strait of Hormuz blockade threatening what the IEA is calling the largest supply disruption in oil market history, they are very wobbly — the advice comes flooding back: go to cash. Protect yourself. Sit it out. Wait for the bottom, then buy back in.
On the surface of it, this makes sense.
Here’s the problem: nobody can actually do it.
Not the timing part. Not reliably. Not even Howard Marks, who has been doing this for 50 years and is one of the smartest people in the business. His view? “In my experience, most people who are lucky enough to sell something before it goes down get so busy patting themselves on the back they forget to buy it back.”
But forget the buying-back problem for a moment. Let’s just talk about what sitting in cash actually costs you.
According to Hartford Funds, if you’d been invested in the S&P 500 over the last 30 years but missed just the 10 best days, your returns would have been cut in half. Miss the 30 best days — 30 days out of roughly 7,500 trading days — and your returns drop by 84%. And here’s the part that should make any cash-holder nervous: 76% of the market’s strongest days happened either during bear markets or in the first two months of a bull market.
Here’s the kicker: the market’s best recoveries happen fast and without warning. If you’re in cash waiting for the signal to get back in, you’ll almost certainly miss them.
We saw a perfect illustration of this on April 8th. Markets had been tanking on war fears. Then a US-Iran ceasefire was announced and the Dow surged over 1,000 points in a single session. That was one of those days. If you’d been sitting in cash waiting for things to “calm down”, you missed it.
This is the trap. The instinct to go to cash feels like prudence. It feels like doing something. And right now — with economists predicting recessions, oil prices spiking, and war headlines every morning — I understand the temptation more than ever. Even Tony, who’s been at this for 30+ years, would tell you the macro picture looks genuinely alarming.
But that’s exactly the point. We don’t actually know what the market will do next.
We’ve said this on the show for years, and it keeps being proved right. And yet markets keep surprising us — both up and down — and nobody calls the turns with any consistency.
So in QAV, we don’t try to.
Instead, we use a rules-based system to tell us when to act. When a stock drops below our Sell Line, we sell. When the checklist identifies a high-scoring stock at a compelling value, we buy. We’re not second-guessing the macro. We’re not reading headlines and making gut calls. We have no opinion about whether the Iran war will cause a recession — because that opinion wouldn’t be reliable, and even if it were right, we still wouldn’t know when to get back in.
There are times when the system naturally puts us in cash — when the checklist can’t find anything worth buying. But that’s a different thing entirely from going to cash because you’re scared.
Think of it this way. Our sell triggers are our helmets and seat belts. There’s real risk in being in the market, just like there’s real risk every time you get in a car. But the answer isn’t to never drive. The answer is to buckle up.
You accept the risk. You take precautions. You follow the rules that give you the best chance of getting where you want to go in one piece. What you don’t do is leave the car in the garage forever because something bad might happen.
That’s not prudence. That’s just being stuck.
Far more money has been lost by investors waiting for the all-clear than by investors who stayed in, protected themselves as best they could, and let the system do its job.
STOCK ANALYSIS OF THE WEEK
I added one stock to the Light portfolios this week and you can see my Light posts here.
I also added something to the U.S. Light portfolio this week. U.S. Light and Club members can read about it here. It was also the subject of the American episode. See the podcast link down below if you want to listen to my analysis.
On the full Australian podcast this week, Tony did a deep dive on PPC. See the podcast link down below if you want to listen to his analysis.
BUY LIST
Each week, we produce a buy list based on our value investing system that we share with our QAV Club members. The intended primary purpose of this buy list is for club members to use as a reference for comparing their own buy list. In theory, all of our buy lists should look pretty similar each week.
QAV Value Investing Buy List (AU) 2026-04-11
Below is a link to the US list for this week (available exclusively to our U.S. Club members):
QAV Value Investing Buy List 2026-04-12
PORTFOLIOS
We compare our performance to what we think is the most relevant benchmark (SPDR 200 in Australia, S&P500 in the USA), but if you’re new to investing, these comparisons might not mean much. Instead, you can compare our performance to the top-performing Super Funds in Australia and see why an amateur active investor (who has a system to follow) can out-perform most of the “professionals”.
AUSTRALIAN
QAV DUMMY
Five Year Report: Over the last 5 years, the QAV AU portfolio delivered a return of approximately 15.35%, while the ASX 200 benchmark gained around 8.83%.
Monthly Report: Over the past 30 days, the QAV AU portfolio delivered a return of approximately 3.2%, while the ASX 200 benchmark returned around 3.8%.
I did sell CGF from our portfolio this week and replaced it with EDU.
For FY26: Over the financial year to date, the QAV AU portfolio delivered a return of approximately 19.16%, while the ASX 200 benchmark gained around 8.39%.
QAV LIGHT
All Time
Over the all-time period, the QAV AU Light portfolio delivered a return of approximately 19.57%, while the ASX 200 benchmark gained around 10.96%.
Financial Year to Date
Over the financial year to date, the QAV AU Light portfolio delivered a return of approximately 27.3%, while the ASX 200 benchmark gained around 8.4%.
Last 30 Days
Over the past 30 days, the QAV AU Light portfolio delivered a return of approximately4.93%, while the ASX 200 benchmark gained around 3.78%.
Last 12 Months
Over the past 12 months, the QAV AU Light portfolio delivered a return of approximately 37.15%, while the ASX 200 benchmark gained around 20.07%.
Become a QAV Light Member today and start your investing on the right track
If you want to find out what we’re trading in QAV Light each week, sign up to become a member. You’ll get an email from me every Monday letting you know what we’re buying and selling in that portfolio. You can choose to copy our trades or not. It’s the easiest way to start your rules-based investing career… and you don’t even need to know the rules. I’ll follow the rules for you. It’s a good first step to eventually becoming a QAV Club member and learning how to run the system by yourself.
(Note: Americans interested in joining QAV Light or Club please go here instead.)
AMERICAN
QAV DUMMY
The QAV America portfolio has delivered returns of +105% since inception, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 benchmark which gained +52% over the same period. This represents outperformance of approximately 53 percentage points.
Over the past 30 days, the QAV America portfolio delivered a +7% return compared to the S&P 500’s flat performance near 1%.
No trades this week.
QAV LIGHT
Since inception (Dec 2025), our portfolio is +6.06% vs the S&P 500 +0.00%.
THIS WEEK’S EPISODES
Not Tom Selic (PAGS) – QAV America #48
STOCK NEWS AND UPDATES
COMMODITIES
This week the big changes to commodities were the following:
Coal (coking) — JOSEPHINE
Crude Oil — JOSEPHINE
Copper — BUY
Platinum — BUY
Aluminium — BUY
Tin — BUY
Manganese — JOSEPHINE
Steel — SELL
Nickel — BUY
WTI Crude — JOSEPHINE
DISCLOSURE
Please review our trading and disclosure policy.
SIGNING OFF
Well, that’s another week in the books, QAV’ers! While the market continues to throw its usual tantrums and the media keeps screaming about the crisis du jour, we’re staying focused on the fundamentals and letting Mr. Market serve up opportunities on a silver platter. Our deep dives into PPC and PAGS this week show there’s still plenty of value to be found for those patient enough to look beyond the noise. Keep stacking those quality companies at reasonable prices, trust the process, and remember – keep wearing a helmet.
SSDD!
- Cam
That’s it for the week!
QAV A GOOD SHAREMARKET!
Got a question? info@qavamerica.com