QAVUS

Breaking Bread (BFH) – QAV AMERICA 41

Breaking Bread (BFH) – QAV AMERICA 41

by | Feb 28, 2026 | , , , ,

In this episode of QAV America, Cameron and Tony navigate the “completely bonkers” landscape of 2026, where a Supreme Court reversal on Trump’s previous tariffs and the looming shadow of AI bubbles have left investors guessing. The duo breaks down the hidden “gotchas” of American Depository Receipts (ADRs), specifically examining the tax hurdles and custody fees associated with South Korean plays like Shinhan Financial Group (SHG) and Korea Electric Power (KEP). The centerpiece of the episode is a “Pulled Pork” deep dive into **Bread Financial (BFH)**—a high-yielding, unloved credit card “stub” that has spent years amputating its legacy loyalty businesses to emerge as a pure-play lender. Despite the “Trump Slump” threat of capped interest rates and a “stinky” past involving a bankrupt spin-off, BFH boasts a massive QAV quality score and looks dirt cheap on a price-to-cash-flow basis.

SHG – The Seoul of Value: QAV AMERICA 40

SHG – The Seoul of Value: QAV AMERICA 40

by | Feb 20, 2026 | , , , ,

In this episode of QAV America, Cameron and Tony navigate a volatile week in the US markets, lead by Ford’s staggering $8.2 billion loss for 2025 and their strategic retreat from full electrification. The duo reviews the impressive performance of their “deep dive” portfolio, noting that many previously analyzed stocks have seen triple-digit or high double-digit gains. The centerpiece of the episode is a “Pulled Pork” deep dive into **Shinhan Financial Group ($SHG)**, a South Korean banking giant. Despite a litany of scandals involving cartel-like collusion, fraud, and political instability in Korea, the hosts weigh the risks against the “Value Up” government catalyst that may finally unlock the company’s depressed valuation.

TUSK – The Cobra’s Bite – QAV AMERICA 39

TUSK – The Cobra’s Bite – QAV AMERICA 39

by | Feb 13, 2026 | , , , ,

In this high-stakes episode, Cameron and Tony celebrate a “bonkers” run for the QAV America portfolio, which is currently outperforming the S&P 500 by nearly double. After reviewing news on Seneca Foods (SENEA) and the curious 15% share price drop for Regional Management (RM) following record earnings, the duo dives into the murky waters of Mammoth Energy Services (TUSK). What begins as a look at an energy services “roll-up” quickly transforms into a true-crime corporate thriller involving a $1.8 billion contract, a FEMA bribery scandal, and a forfeited 40-foot luxury catamaran. They analyze whether TUSK is a “mammoth in the making” or a “wild pig,” weighing its current status as a cash-heavy “stub” with zero debt against its history of “dirty stories” and its new pivot into aviation rentals and fiber optics.

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Episode Timestamps

[00:00:00] Intro: Market “conniptions” and the US sneezing on Australia.
[00:00:50] Portfolio Performance: The dummy portfolio hits 103% since inception (Highlights: WLFC, BLX, ESCA, GASS).
[00:05:40] Stock News: SENEA (Seneca Foods) Q3 results show improving margins.
[00:06:20] Stock News: RM (Regional Management) beats expectations but the share price craters.
[00:07:50] Deep Dive: TUSK (Mammoth Energy Services) 

EC: Pump and Dump – QAV AMERICA 38

EC: Pump and Dump – QAV AMERICA 38

by | Feb 6, 2026 | , , , ,

In this episode, Cameron and Tony navigate a turbulent week in the American markets, touching on the downturn of Bitcoin, gold, and the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks. Despite the macro-volatility, they celebrate the continued outperformance of their US dummy portfolio, which has nearly doubled its value since September 2023. The conversation shifts to a critical look at “stores of value” like Bitcoin and gold, with Tony arguing that without an inherent way to calculate intrinsic value, these assets remain speculative “pump and dump” cycles. The centerpiece of the show is a deep dive into the Colombian oil giant, **Ecopetrol (EC)**. The duo explores its unique monopoly on Colombian pipelines and its strategic pivot into high-voltage electricity transmission, all while navigating the “magical realism” of Colombian politics, executive scandals involving “cost-plus” prostitution, and a president who hates the very oil industry his government owns.

CHRD: The Williston Whale – QAV AMERICA 37

CHRD: The Williston Whale – QAV AMERICA 37

by | Jan 30, 2026 | , , , ,

In this episode of QAV America, Cameron and Tony navigate the extremes of global weather and market volatility. After discussing the impact of recent geopolitical “deals” on their US portfolios, they dive into a success story from the Bakken formation: **Chord Energy (CHRD)**. The conversation explores the “Shale 2.0” era, detailing how modern horizontal drilling and leaner capital structures have transformed former bankruptcy stories into cash-generating powerhouses. Tony provides a technical breakdown of Chord’s recent $11 billion acquisition of Enerplus and their shareholder-friendly policy of returning free cash flow through buybacks and dividends.

AMTD: The Murky SpiderNet – QAV AMERICA 36

AMTD: The Murky SpiderNet – QAV AMERICA 36

by | Jan 23, 2026 | , , , ,

In this episode of QAV America, Cameron and Tony navigate the complex intersections of the 2026 US economy, where the AI boom is currently offsetting the drag of ongoing tariffs. The duo explores the shifting AI landscape, notably Apple’s decision to build the next Siri on Google Gemini rather than homegrown technology, leaving significant questions about the future of OpenAI. The heart of the show is a “Pulled Pork” deep dive into **AMTD Idea Group (AMTD)**, a company with a fascinating Australian origin story involving the Commonwealth Bank. Despite trading at an unbelievable discount to book value (P/B 0.04), AMTD remains a polarizing prospect due to its controversial leadership under Calvin Choi, a bizarre “Spider Net” ecosystem, and a recent shift from Big Four auditors to a small regional firm in Singapore.

Flying at Bus Prices: Volaris (VLRS) – QAV AMERICA 35

Flying at Bus Prices: Volaris (VLRS) – QAV AMERICA 35

by | Jan 16, 2026 | , , , ,

In this episode, Cameron and Tony range from bushfires in Australia to political pressure on the US Federal Reserve, before digging into portfolio performance and a detailed QAV-style teardown of Mexican ultra-low-cost airline Volaris (VLRS). They unpack why airlines keep showing up on the QAV America buy list, how VLRS built a Ryanair-style model aimed at converting long-haul bus travellers into flyers, and why the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine recall temporarily derailed the business. The discussion balances strong operating cash flow and a seasoned low-cost airline playbook against razor-thin margins, fuel price sensitivity, and the ever-present risks of airline investing.

Picking Through the Wreckage of XPLR Infrastructure (XIFR) – QAV AMERICA 34

Picking Through the Wreckage of XPLR Infrastructure (XIFR) – QAV AMERICA 34

by | Jan 9, 2026 | , , , ,

In the first QAV America episode of 2026, Cameron and Tony reset the framework for the year ahead. With geopolitical shocks rattling oil markets, bullish Wall Street forecasts predicting another US equity rally, and political noise everywhere, the hosts reiterate the core QAV philosophy: ignore predictions, stick to the rules, and let disciplined process do the work. The episode’s deep dive focuses on XPLR Infrastructure (XIFR), a former income darling left for dead after cutting its dividend. Cameron unpacks the wreckage, tracing XIFR’s origins as a NextEra Energy yieldco, the collapse of its “cheap capital forever” model when interest rates rose, and why the market may now be pricing the stock as if its long-dated contracted cash flows don’t exist. The discussion weighs political risk, debt complexity, asset quality, and valuation extremes, before explaining why XIFR sits at the top of the current US QAV buy list and is being added to the live QAV Light portfolio.

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Timestamps & Topics (QAV episode)

00:00 – 03:00
Geopolitics, crude oil volatility, and why QAV tracks commodities as signals rather than predictions.

03:00 – 06:30
Wall Street forecasts for a 2026 rally. Why QAV ignores predictions and doubles down on rules-based discipline.

06:30 – 09:00
“Year of sticking to the rules.” Behavioural discipline as the real edge in investing.

09:00 – 11:00
Introducing the deep dive stock: XPLR Infrastructure (XIFR) and why it tops the US buy list.

11:00 – 16:30
XIFR’s origin story as a NextEra Energy yieldco. The “infinite money glitch” and how cheap capital powered growth.

16:30 – 21:30
What broke: rising interest rates, dividend suspension, investor revolt, and the stock price collapse.

21:30 – 26:30
Business model breakdown. Long-dated power purchase agreements, wind and solar assets, and why the cash flows didn’t disappear.

26:30 – 30:30
Trump, renewables, and political risk. Why sentiment may be a headwind but revenues are largely locked in.

30:30 – 34:30
Balance sheet repair. Asset sales, debt reduction, and why no dividend can be good news for value investors.

34:30 – 39:30
Key valuation metrics: price to operating cash flow, book value discount, dilution history, and QAV checklist scores.

39:30 – 42:30
Red flags and risks: complex financing, management execution, and why the stock still qualifies under QAV rules.

42:30 – 45:00
Portfolio update, recent performance versus the S&P 500, and adding XIFR to the QAV Light portfolio.

The Walking Dead Investment: AMC Networks – QAV AMERICA #33

The Walking Dead Investment: AMC Networks – QAV AMERICA #33

by | Jan 1, 2026 | , , , ,

In the final QAV America episode of 2025, Cameron and Tony reflect on a turbulent but revealing year for markets, value investing, and the QAV system. The conversation opens with a recap of US market conditions and the launch of QAV Light US, designed to give American listeners a live, transparent way to learn the QAV process through real weekly trades. Cameron then reviews the long-term performance of the US dummy portfolio, highlighting strong multi-year outperformance despite a difficult 2025 relative to the S&P 500.

The episode’s deep dive focuses on AMC Networks (AMCX)—a former prestige-TV powerhouse now trading at distressed valuations. The discussion traces AMC’s origins in the Dolan family’s cable empire, its golden era producing Mad Men, Breaking Bad, and The Walking Dead, and the brutal impact of cord-cutting on its business model. Cameron and Tony unpack why AMC is bleeding on earnings but still generating real cash, why the market hates it, and why it nonetheless tops the QAV buy list.

The episode closes with a broader discussion of cycles in investing, the importance of selling discipline, Tony’s emerging “Growth over PE” insight from Australian markets, and why patience with a rules-based system matters more than short-term performance.

Ziff Davis: The Internet’s Invisible Toll Booth – QAV America #32

Ziff Davis: The Internet’s Invisible Toll Booth – QAV America #32

by | Dec 21, 2025 | , , , ,

In this episode of QAV America, Cameron and Tony open with reflections on the tragic Bondi attack and Australia’s long-standing gun laws before turning to the week’s U.S. stock market action. They discuss recent market jitters, AI-driven volatility in tech stocks, and the ongoing rotation into “value” names. Cameron then delivers a deep dive on Ziff Davis (ZD) — a little-known but highly profitable owner of the internet’s comparison-shopping and review infrastructure. The conversation explores ZD’s long history, its reinvention after the dot-com crash, its heavy reliance on SEO and affiliate monetisation, and the existential question hanging over the business: will AI replace human-driven product reviews? Rather than forecasting the future, the episode frames ZD through the QAV lens — cash flow, valuation, optionality, and downside protection — and examines why a business that looks structurally threatened may still offer attractive value today.