QAV Weekly Update 2026-03-06

by Cam Reilly | Mar 6, 2026 | Blog | 0 comments

Hi folks,

I hope you’re all having a great week. Last week I said we were coming to the end of reporting season and things should get back to normal. Well… I guess normal involves WWIII breaking out. It’s been a horrendous week on the global markets as you can see from this chart.

AORD|656

The key thing to remember, though, is that WE HAVE RULES.

One of the great things about using a system like QAV is that we don’t panic during market downturns. If anything, we see them as an opportunity.

So, let’s get into the thick of my weekly updates and see where we are at.

All the Best,
Cam

QUIZ OF THE WEEK!

Each week we’re asking you to choose from two stocks from our buy list this week. Which do you think will be the best performer over the next week?

Last week the choices were CCV or HZN. Out of the votes received, CCV was the clear favourite.

Well how did they fare?

CCV|328
HZN|328

Congratulations to the geniuses who picked CCV. It dropped 3%, but was still the winner!

Let’s see who can pick the winner this week between…

Click the image and take your chances!

May the Munger be with you.

NOTE: Apologies to our American audience. I promise to come up with an American poll for you soon.

QAV MYTH KILLERS

DAVE’S FIVE-YEAR QAV JOURNEY

As you may have heard on this week’s episode (#909), one of our members, Dave, just celebrated his five year anniversary as a QAV Club member and was kind enough to share his experience with us. I thought it would be instructional in this week’s newsletter to spend some more time breaking down the lessons from Dave’s email. He’s had more success than the majority of investors and it’s worth stopping to think about why.

Let’s start with his reported returns.

His comparison benchmark, is, he says, the “AXJT on finance.yahoo.com which I understand to be the S&P/ASX 200 Gross Total Return index.” That checks out.

He says he is “using a Time Weighted Rate of Return (TWRR) as I have injected capital via 2 tranches, the second larger than the first.”

Pretty great results.

You can compare Dave’s performance to the top-performing Super Funds in Australia.

An amateur active investor (who has a system to follow) is out-performing most of the “professionals”.

Here are Dave’s key observations of his QAV journey so far:

I am definitely the value end of QAV. If I have a choice, I nearly always take a cheap option when it’s available, especially relative to cash flow, NTA, and if the company is doing a genuine buy back.
I am regularly reviewing and sometimes buying off the watch list – I don’t always wait for momentum (3PTL buy). I’ll buy it because it has a high QAV score and is super cheap and I will patiently wait for others to notice.
Sometimes if a stock goes rule 1 sell I’ll give it an extra long fudge if it’s really cheap.
I experimented with the 20% rule 1 sell but was burned big more than once when stuff dropped through the 20% very quickly. Wasn’t a fan so I’ve gone back to 10%.
I enjoy the micro end of the market. But it got harder staying in micro and even small as the portfolio grew. Recently I’ve been experimenting with a change whereby if I have capital for a position and don’t like any of the bigger market cap stocks I’ll take up positions in 2 or 3 smaller cap stocks and if one or two become a rule 1 sell I’ll then sell those and put the capital into the one or two of the original three that are winning. The average daily trade of smaller stocks grows as they get more profile, so I figure I’m managing the risk of rushing to the exits by taking bigger positions as the market cap and average daily trade grows and as the winners self-identify.
I also vary the position sizing of the 15-20 stocks in the portfolio a little to get into smaller cap stocks. I don’t really have any science to this and I’m sure it will have an impact of some sort in the long run.

Some highlights/lowlights:

My biggest realised gain was MRM (MMA Offshore) – 680% in ~2.5 years. I bought it from the watchlist and sold it on a takeover off the ASX (unfortunately, it looked like it might go higher).
My biggest winner still held is MAD (Mader Group). Was briefly my first ever 10 bagger but has pulled back to about 9 bags full. A heady mixture of a growth company briefly available at value prices when I bought it off the bottom of the buy list in mid-2021. This is a CLASSIC example of why we shouldn’t take profits for the sake of it. I would have sold this thing a few times if I had some sort of pullback from a peak rule (and if I listened to my wife) but eventually it swings and starts a new run. Based on the 3PTL as of today I’m sitting on a 642% gain. My guess is I would definitely have settled for less than that if I sold on its first pullback.
The 3PTL spiral (through 2022 and 2023 from memory?) was harsh. I got close at one point to losing all my gains and getting back to my starting capital. Those were testing times. But it was worth it because the portfolio went bananas in calendar year 2025.
My two biggest losers were 48% and 55%. Nearly all my fault for ignoring rules, but also because they took huge steps down in very short spaces of time. Both were in the first 18 months. Lesson learned.

The value I still get from being a member:

Getting constantly reminded of the rules and the process and why it’s all important in the context of all of the options out there for investing your hard earned. As Buffett or Munger or both said, beyond some basics of a reasonable IQ, some capital, and competency with simple math, investing is all behavioural. I tune in every week because Tony and you constantly remind me to stick to the plan. This is especially important during any hiccups the market has had. It mattered a lot during the 3PTL spiral.
The book, article and author recommendations and the guests you get on all form part of this continuous loop of reinforcement that in the long run this shit works better than any other shit out there.
I think as I look back I realise I’ve made a lot of mistakes, especially at the start. It was all behavioural (including getting way too attached to the stocks and constantly trying to out think the process). This has settled a lot for me, which again is where I get my value as a member – the reinforcement week-in-week out to just take all the emotion out of it (highs and lows), be as black and white in the decision making as possible, and just trust the process and that the math will work in the long run. And then the confidence that comes from seeing all that actually happen and work over a five year period even with me in there trying to screw it up once in a while.
I don’t run my own buy list anymore. Life is busier than ever so I lazily just take yours and pick over it (and the watch list). And the 3PTL sell tab, and commodity prices, and most of the stuff in the file you publish weekly. I think this alone is worth the subscription price.
The Brettalator – just brilliant.

Anyway that’s enough waffle. Sorry it’s so long, was inspired by the recent episode where someone suggested you start a survey to get input from members as to their lessons and application of the process.

Much gratitude to you and Tony and everything QAV.

Dave From Newy

Thanks again for sharing your insights, Dave. Great stuff and TK and I are very pleased for you.

STOCK ANALYSIS OF THE WEEK

We are still in “Reporting Season” in Australia, but I’ve found a few things to buy this week and you can see my Light posts here.

I also added something to the U.S. Light portfolio this week. U.S. Light and Club members can read it here.

On the full Australian podcast this week, Tony did a deep dive on Central Petroleum (CTP). See the podcast link down below if you want to listen to his analysis.

BUY LIST

Each week, we produce a buy list based on our value investing system that we share with our QAV Club members. The intended primary purpose of this buy list is for club members to use as a reference for comparing their own buy list. In theory, all of our buy lists should look pretty similar each week.

I did publish a buy list for Australia this week and Club members can find it here.

Below is a link to the US list for this week (available to our U.S. Club members):

QAV American Value Investing Buy List 2026-03-02

PORTFOLIOS

We compare our performance to what we think is the most relevant benchmark (SPDR 200 in Australia, S&P500 in the USA), but if you’re new to investing, these comparisons might not mean much. Instead, you can compare our performance to the top-performing Super Funds in Australia and see why an amateur active investor (who has a system to follow) can out-perform most of the “professionals”.

AUSTRALIAN

QAV DUMMY

AU Dummy portfolio chart|1280

Five Year Report: Over the last five years, our portfolio is +15.75% p.a. vs the benchmark +9.64% p.a.

Monthly Report: The AU Dummy Portfolio was -1.24% p.a. for the last 30 days vs the benchmark -0.21% p.a.

No changes to our portfolio this week.

For FY26, our portfolio is +20.18% vs +6.54% for the index.

AU Dummy portfolio chart FY|1280

QAV LIGHT

As of Monday this week (the last time I did a report), in the last 30 days, the Light portfolio was +1.5% vs the index which was +4%.

Our best return for the last 30 days is Toowoomba-based Wagners Holding Company Limited (WGN), a construction materials and services provider. It’s up 29% in the last month. The market really liked their FY25 Results.

We bought it 23/12/2024 at $1.39 and it’s now trading at $4.64, so it’s up +234%. A double bagger.

What a pretty chart.

WGN|512

QAV OUTPERFORMS THE MARKET

For the last 12 months, the Light portfolio is +41% vs the index +16%, which makes us roughly 2.5x.

Since inception (Feb 2022), the Light portfolio is +22% vs the index +12%, roughly double market, right where we should be.

Become a QAV Light Member today and start your investing on the right track

If you want to find out what we’re trading in QAV Light each week, sign up to become a member. You’ll get an email from me every Monday letting you know what we’re buying and selling in that portfolio. You can choose to copy our trades or not. It’s the easiest way to start your rules-based investing career… and you don’t even need to know the rules. I’ll follow the rules for you. It’s a good first step to eventually becoming a QAV Club member and learning how to run the system by yourself.